Hitting Mystic Defense

This is a “simple” table with the stated goal of hitting a monster with 86% of mystical-based attacks (karma not included). This chart is referencing step deviation table here. Which calculate average - 1 SD. Then the step for that is placed in the chart.
Remember that karma is +4. So if you have a PER of 7 and a spellcasting rank of 6, you have an ESR of 13 without karma. 17 with karma. This means you can hit mystic defense 10 >86% of the time. If you blindside, this is equal to an effective +2. Looking at how high deviation higher steps are, blindsiding is very impactful.

Mystic Defense

Circle Number	Low	Average	High
Circle 1	7.00	8	10.00
Circle 2	7.00	8	9.00
Circle 3	8.00	9	11.00
Circle 4	7.00	10	12.00
Circle 5	10.00	12	13.00
Circle 6	11.00	13	15.00
Circle 7	13.00	15	16.00
Circle 8	14.00	16	18.00

Spellcasting

Necessary Effective Spellcasting Step	Target MD
13	8
16	9
17	10
20	12
22	13
24	15
25	16